My RX radar was going off...
St. Pierre/Miller
Getting St. Pierre at -145 is good stuff. Miller has the goods, but St. Pierre is one of a handful of people who can say they (more or less) won a round against Matt Hughes. Georges decimated Miller's teammate Jay Hieron. He whupped on Karo Parisyan. He's in terrific shape.
Miller, IMO, is too wiry for the welterweights, with no low center of gravity. Hughes or Trigg would snap him in half. And he's only had one fight in 18 months. This is a big step up in competition. I like Georges to dominate here.
Sobral/Wiuff
I took Sobral at -120 a few days ago. He simply has more tools in his bag that Wiuff does, and is a good wrestler in his own right. A lot of people remember his KO loss to Liddell - lots of good fighters have suffered the same fate. Sobral won an IFC tourney in '03 old-school style, beating Trevor Prangley, Shogun Rua, and Jeremy Horn in a single night. That's amazing.
My big concern here is that Wiuff will emulate Kevin Randleman's victory over Sobral and lay/pray for the decision. Stand-ups should help negate that. Wiuff will have to stay busy in Babalu's guard. Cutting from 280 to 205 is borderline insanity - something will fall off the wagon, whether it be power or your gas tank - and I expect the deciding factor here to be the problem that guys like Randleman encountered when dropping weight: they no longer have the speed advantage, and simply aren't prepared for the agility of the lighter guys. Charlie Chubby at heavyweight won't move like Babalu will.
Sobral should be able to light up an outclassed Wiuff for the stoppage.
(FYI - Sobral's fights against Fedor and Henderson were in RINGS, with no striking allowed to the head on the ground.)
Marsh/Van Arsdale
These guys have had something like four fights total in five years. How anyone could pick a side is beyond me. The UFC is hoping they can get a heavyweight contender out of the winner. No opinion.
Doerkson/Cote
Doerkson should submit Cote without incident, though Patrick does have power in his hands.
Lindland/Lutter
Hard to bet against TQ in any situation, but Lutter has the better hands and submissions. The game could be passing Matt by - his wrestling is good enough against the Baronis of the world, but I don't know how he'll fare here. No opinion, but if forced, I'd pick Lindland.
Salaverry/Riggs
Salaverry is inconsistent, but if he's on his game, he should submit Riggs.
Trigg/Hughes
I feel the same way about this fight as I did Arlovski/Sylvia - I see two fighters going in opposite directions. Hughes went from being dominant every minute of every round to barely squeaking by Verissimo and St. Pierre. Trigg, meanwhile, steamrolled Verissimo and Hallman. He made a dumb mistake in their first fight and didn't regard Hughes as a submission threat. Live and learn.
Hughes can win in one of two ways: catch Trigg in a submission in transition, or take Trigg into the later rounds, where he'll be a fish out of water. But Matt's biggest strength - his massive takedowns followed by ground/pound - are being taken away here. Trigg is not going to get tossed around. I think he can either prevent the TD or stalemate while on the mat, leaving the fight decided on the feet, where Trigg has the better hands. Hughes gets rocked easily (Sakurai, Penn, Pele). St. Pierre was smacking him around, too. I like Trigg to TKO Hughes for the win, clipping him on the feet and smelling blood for the stoppage. He wants to be a fighter. Hughes doesn't.
Couture/Liddell
My previous pick goes against logic, which dictates that 80% of MMA rematches end up having the same outcome. I think Trigg/Hughes is a case of a fluke misstep that won't be repeated. But Liddell/Couture 1 was pretty much complete domination from start to finish.
I think this will be Randy's hardest fight to date at LHW: Liddell was taken aback by his aggression on the feet last time. And quite honestly, I don't think he saw Randy as a threat. Everyone thought this was just a formality, a way to get a belt on Liddell with Tito throwing a tantrum in the corner. Randy surprised everyone.
That element is out the window. We know Liddell can KO Randy if he gets off, and we know he can get up from the bottom. That's a bad combination for Couture. We're also talking about Randy being two years older now, whereas Chuck is only a somewhat ripe 35.
I think I can list lots of ways for Randy to lose, but what difference does it make? He always finds a way to take his opponent out of his game. A victory by either guy wouldn't surprise me, but you'll go broke betting against Couture. He might have to settle for a decision this time around, though.
My only plays for this card are Sobral and Trigg. Good luck to everyone. It'll be a terrific show.
